Not the end of oil
Special thanks to Trudeaupia’s entry for setting me on to J Simon’s works, including this chapter in particular.
“Known reserves” are much like the food we put into our cupboards at home. We stock enough groceries for a few weeks or days – not so much that we will be carrying a heavy unneeded inventory that bulges the cupboard and ties up an unnecessary amount of money in groceries, and not so little that we may run out if an unexpected event – a guest or a blizzard – should descend upon us. The amount of food in our cupboards tells little or nothing about the scarcity of food in our communities, because as a rule it does not reveal how much food is available in the retail stores. Similarly, the oil in the “cupboard” – the quantity of known reserves – tells us nothing about the quantities of
oil that can be obtained in the long run at various extraction costs.This explains why the quantity of known reserves, as if by a miracle of coincidence, stays just a step ahead of demand, as seen in figure 11-5. An elderly man commented to me in the 1970s that, according to the news stories about known reserves, “we’ve been just about to run out of oil ever since I’ve been a boy.” Yet most discussions of the oil and energy situation – among laymen and also among the most respected journalists – still focus on known reserves.






